The prophetic words of Yogi Berra would seem to fit our point in time perfectly.

The last election was historic in many ways. I believe it also tells us quite a bit about future elections. The common assumption is that elections run in cycles with each party taking its turn. There may still be cycles but the transformation of this last election could alter these cycles dramatically.

The colorful Cajun, James Carville, one of President Clinton’s chief political strategists, has written a new book in which he projects the Democrats will control national elections for 36 or 40 years.

Sound outlandish? Maybe not. Consider two sets of facts.

First, the Republican Party is locked in a struggle to find or create a consensus. The conservative wing feels the party has to strengthen its conservative principles and expand that base. That essentially was the strategy of President Bush and his political advisor, Karl Rove.

The moderates in the party, on the other hand, look at the last election results and argue that the party must project a more socially and culturally moderate position in order to appeal to a wider range of voters.

The second set of facts tend to support the view of the moderate, as well as Carville’s predictions.

Writing in the Los Angeles Times, Ronald Brownstein said, “Population changes that favor the Democrats are redrawing America’s electoral map.”

He goes on to say that the most reliable voting blocs in the Democratic Party have grown and will continue to expand. These groups, according to Brownstein, are Latinos, African-Americans, Asians and other minorities. The conservative blue collar voter base that tends to support the Republicans, on the other hand, is declining dramatically.

Add to this the advent of citizenship for currently illegal aliens and the pot begins to boil over.

Brownstein’s conclusion is a bit scary: “Any GOP coalition too narrow to welcome back voters who share moderate views is almost certainly too narrow to dislodge the Democrats.” If in fact we are headed for effectively a one-party government I am not sure this can be a healthy thing for the country.

Is it time for a third party? That is a subject for another time.

What do you think?

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